When does Brigwyn think Cataclym will be released

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Over on the forums we had a question asked about Arthas and his availability -

Is he out yet? I’ve only managed like a month away from WoW (not even most likely) and I’m already thinking of going back… just as something to do though… I’m not twitching or anything. – Rakusa

A relatively benign question don’t you think? LOL Think again.

It lead up to me explaining that Arthas would be gated and probably not seen right away. That  of course led to

I’m sure it’ll be a good amount of time before cata… unless they wanna pull a Naxx again. – Rakusu

Which led me opening my big mouth and deciding to give my take on when Cataclysm is going to be released.

So here ya go, enjoy this is my take on when Cataclysm will be released.

They’re managing the bosses with gated progression. Unless I read this wrong think of it as a mix between TOC and Ulduar.

Basically you have to clear lower level bosses to unlock higher level ones. And all 12 bosses have to be unlocked before moving forward.

Now, depending on the progression and how long it takes to do this you might be looking anywhere between 6-12 weeks I’m guessing. Uber guilds? hmm.. Maybe they can do it in 3-6? But it really looks to complete this it’ll be a good 3 months for most guilds and 6 months for “everyone” else.

That’s my understanding on progression.

As for Cataclysm?

Here’s my off the record and pure Brigwyn analysis -

All of this would make it possible for Cataclysm to be slated for a May/June release. Why?

1. Development on Cataclysm was started and in the works before release of Wrath, heck looks to have begun before the completion of Wrath’s Beta (I’ll try to dig the Kaplan/Chilton interview, but I think it was done by Curse.)
Added: Source 1 and Source 2 indirect references. J Allen Brack talks specific Dev Cycle.)

2. Seeing the completed starting zones AND the admission at BlizzCon that Blizzard phyically held players from exploring out side the Goblin/Worgen starting zones also lends credibility that more development was done before the announcement at BlizzCon ‘09. (Source)

3. If that’s all true add corporate politics for wanting solid quarterly reports. Meaning, 4th Quarter ‘09 is spurred by 3.3 re-ups and some new purchases. That would leave 1Q (I’m pretty sure Blizzard’s fiscal calendar is standard) with Beta Announcements and hype for Cataclsym. Along with SC II release picking up any slack. 2Q needs a bang that’s going to be Cataclysm’s release. If you’re asking about 3 and 4Q 2010? Remember BlizzCon in July/August (mid 2Q) (this is pure speculation on my part other than theSQ Release date says 1/2 Half not 1Q but I’ll hold my guess.)

4. That brings us to the July BlizzCon fiasco. Since unofficialy Blizzard said something’s going on but not BlizzCon it’s difficult to say what this is. My guess? It’s the July roll-out party for Cataclysm. All I heard was something about a developers in Las Vegas during July.

5. Now to answer what about the rest of 2010? BlizzCon in late July/August to build hype for 3Q announcement of 1st Major Cataclysm Patch and new content for SC II and the best of all a 4th Q or 1Q – 2011 Release of Diablo II.

So there you have it. That’s my completely off the cuff guess for Blizzard’s 2010 release.

(again remember this is all conjecture on my part.)

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